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And so, it happened. The most senior “general” appeared at the White House and dropped a bombshell that cannot be repelled: a plan to end Israel’s war on Gaza, which will reach the two-year mark on Tuesday. The plan starts with a ceasefire and prisoner and hostage exchange, leading to shaping Gaza’s future and paving the way toward permanent peace and a two-state solution.
Solutions to complicated wars often leave room for reservations and interpretations. A clear solution puts the warring parties in a difficult position because the war will not end with a fatal blow and total surrender. Ambiguity, however, allows them to inform their supporters that they will not make concessions and that, rather, they will achieve greater goals.
This is not what Benjamin Netanyahu and Khalil Al-Hayya and his comrades wanted. But the master of the White House has had the final say. He did not hesitate in declaring that Hamas failing to accept the deal would lead to it facing “all hell.” The warring parties had no choice but to acquiesce to the “general” of the global village and the master of fleets and bunker-buster bombs. He alone is capable of extinguishing the fires that have claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people and broken maps.
Netanyahu is wily. He is aware of the dangers of playing with Donald Trump. He is aware that his partner, who may make him feel warm and comfortable, can change the game without warning to make the smaller partner keep in line and stay in tune with the mood of the bigger partner. That is why Netanyahu greatly praised Trump and stroked his ego. Trump has been generous in supporting Israel, especially during the Iranian chapter of the post-Al-Aqsa Flood wars, but he has not given up the driver’s seat.
The warring parties had no choice but to acquiesce to the ‘general’ of the global village and the master of fleets
Ghassan Charbel
America, which has been pumping aid and support into Israel’s veins, has every right to rein it in when it goes too far. It has the right to make Israel get back in step with the US. The Middle East is an important and vital region. It cannot be left in the hands of Israeli generals and the leaders of the factions. Netanyahu had no choice but to bend to the will of his ally, Trump, even though he is aware that doing so will lead to surprises at home and cause cracks in his government.
The Hamas leadership did not want to agree to a plan that calls for its disarmament and for it to quit the Palestinian scene. It had no ally to turn to. In all likelihood, its leaders recalled what happened in Beirut when it was invaded by the Israeli army in 1982. At the time, Yasser Arafat sought support from Soviet Ambassador Alexander Soldatov, who told him to leave Beirut, even if he had to do so while on board American destroyers. So, Hamas reluctantly agreed to the plan, while voicing some reservations.
Hamas finds itself confronted with some very tough choices two years on from the Al-Aqsa Flood. The general of the White House is very serious and his words are very clear: accept the plan or face “all hell.” The plan is airtight. In its first phase, Hamas loses the most important weapon it has: the hostages. It will then need guarantees — that Israel's occupation of the enclave will not linger on — so that Israel will not carry on waging daily attacks on Gaza the way it is doing in Lebanon. Only one party can guarantee this: the US. But Trump is not a charity or a fan of handing out gifts. He will exact a hefty price for every guarantee he provides.
Two years ago, Yahya Sinwar launched his flood and Netanyahu responded by setting Gaza on fire. The fires went beyond its borders and Israel bombed several maps. Several players are no longer with us and facts on the ground have changed. Iran was forced to quit Syria and Ahmad Al-Sharaa is now president in Damascus. Syria is no longer a haven for the so-called Axis of Resistance or a passage for rocket shipments. Qassem Soleimani’s route has been severed. Al-Sharaa has taken difficult decisions and has joined the train of the new Middle East after shaking hands with the general of the White House. The Iranian project in the region was dealt a blow to its very core.
Trump is not a charity or a fan of handing out gifts. He will exact a hefty price for every guarantee he provides
Ghassan Charbel
Syria today is nothing like the Syria that existed when the Al-Aqsa Flood operation happened two years ago. It is now a barrier between Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Al-Sharaa has said that Syria will never be a threat to any of its neighbors. This means that Syria will at least leave the military aspect of the conflict with Israel, even though the latter continues to provoke and attack its neighbor.
Lebanon today is also not like the Lebanon that existed when the Al-Aqsa Flood operation happened two years ago. Hezbollah, without its leader Hassan Nasrallah, is not the same Hezbollah that existed when he was alive. The war demonstrated Israel’s massive technological superiority. The loss of Syria deprives Hezbollah of the ability to open a new “support front” with Gaza.
There have been even more changes in Lebanon. Its leaders are demanding the possession of weapons be limited to the state. Without this, Lebanon will not be able to join the train of the new Middle East. It will not receive the help it needs for reconstruction and it will not achieve stability. The success of Trump’s plan in Gaza will turn the spotlight on Lebanon, where waiting and stalling are not the best strategy.
Iran too has changed in the two years since the Al-Aqsa Flood. It could not save its allies and it could not respond to the American strikes on its nuclear facilities or the Israeli jets roaming its skies. It has lost some of its cards and sanctions have now once again been slapped on its economy. The Houthi drones and rockets have little impact on the situation.
It has been two years since the Al-Aqsa Flood and more changes are in store. “General” Trump will have introduced massive change to the features of the Middle East if he succeeds in reining in the fighters in Gaza and paving the way for an independent Palestinian state. The negotiations after the release of the hostages and prisoners will be tough and bitter. Who can guarantee that Trump’s train will not veer off track or grow weary and desperate?
- Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel
This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.